Waylaid Dialectic

May 1, 2017

How did Pacific Countries fare under McCully

Filed under: Random Musings — terence @ 11:56 am

Some more aid charts. How did the various Pacific countries fare, in a relative sense, in the McCully era?

Individual PICs as a share of total known NZ aid to the Pacific (two charts of same data)

how did diff pics fare 1

how did diff pics fare 2

Individual PICs as a share of total known NZ country or region allocable global aid

how did diff pics fare 3

Too see the charts better and to access and check calculations and sources, click here.

Key points:

Regional organisations did surprisingly well for a minister who said he didn’t like them.

Lots of bouncing around. Some of this is too be expected. Cyclones and the like. Other bounces are probably from large infrastructure projects. Other bounces reflect a minister who wasn’t one for planning.

To help with getting a sense of broader trends, there are two more charts below. Each has a sub-chart for every country. Each shows share of total aid to the Pacific. Each dot is a year. In the first chart a trend line (an OLS line of best fit is plotted). Because fitting an linear line of best fit is somewhat hazardous in data that bounce around a lot, in the second chart a non-linear trend line (a locally weighted regression line is fitted). (If you want these data in Stata email me.)

Cooks, Kiribati and Tuvalu are obvious winners. Solomon Islands and PNG obvious losers. The rest of the countries’ outcomes were more ambiguous in a relative sense.

Countries’ shares of aid to the Pacific

lfit

lowess

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